随着2025年底伊朗国内经济危机传导为政治骚乱,美以看到了削弱甚至颠覆其政权的机会。由于2025年6月的空袭硕果累累,两国在动武方面已没什么禁忌。2026年2月10日,内塔尼亚胡紧急访问美国,他敦促特朗普再度联手攻伊,承诺以军会在一天内建立空中优势(相比2025年的行动缩短了两天),还带来最新掌握的伊朗内部情报,解除特朗普对长期战争泥潭的担忧。
Фото: Jim Young / Reuters
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So because these things become knowable, because these things are not quite the same as news, I think there’s some sense in which they become easier to bet on. If you know there’s going to be a debate and you know there’s going to be a snap poll after the debate, you can bet on who’s going to win the snap poll after the debate to say who won the debate.